Matrix SigUS economic data and indicators
Factual economic context for inflation, employment, interest rates, and growth, displayed separately from Matrix Sig probability forecasts.
Economic data supplied by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Matrix Sig presents source data alongside, but separate from, forecasts.
+0.4 pp from prior period · FRED
+0.1 pp from prior period · FRED
+0.1 pp from prior period · FRED
-104k from prior period · FRED
+0.1 pp from prior period · FRED
+1.2 pp from prior period · FRED
Inflation
Year-over-year CPI measures from official FRED transformations.
Headline CPI inflation
3.7%% year over year · Sep 2026- Previous
- 3.4%
- Change
- 0.4%
- Source
- FRED
Core CPI inflation
2.6%% year over year · Sep 2026- Previous
- 2.4%
- Change
- 0.1%
- Source
- FRED
Labor market
Unemployment and the latest monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Unemployment rate
4.2%% · Sep 2026- Previous
- 4.1%
- Change
- 0.1%
- Source
- FRED
Nonfarm payroll change
+29.0kthousand jobs · Sep 2026- Previous
- +133k
- Change
- -104k
- Source
- FRED
Federal Reserve
The effective federal funds rate, a factual reference point for rate-decision forecasts.
Federal funds effective rate
3.9%% · Oct 2026- Previous
- 3.8%
- Change
- 0.1%
- Source
- FRED
Growth
Real GDP growth at the annual rate supplied by the official series.
Real GDP growth
3.4%% annual rate · Jul 2026- Previous
- 2.2%
- Change
- 1.2%
- Source
- FRED
Official economic series
Each card names its source and reference period. Recent trends visualize the latest official observations without converting them into forecasts.
Facts and probabilities stay separate
Matrix Sig forecasts appear below as timestamped probability estimates with their own public records.