Matrix SigWhat is a reference class?
A reference class is a defined population of comparable historical cases. A useful class matches the underlying event type, has a defensible period, visible sample size, and clear provenance.
How the method works
Base Rate Analyst starts with an explicit historical base rate, then considers current evidence and case-specific adjustments. It is experimental/private and should not be read as proven more accurate than Market Baseline.
Why bad comparisons mislead
A broad or unrelated comparison can produce a precise-looking number with little meaning. Regime changes, different definitions, stale cases, shared upstream sources, or current conditions can make an apparent reference class unreliable.
When it abstains
Matrix Sig may reject a reference class when comparability, sample size, historical period, or source provenance is not strong enough. Abstention is preferable to presenting a weak historical comparison as a trustworthy forecast.
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