Forecasting 101

Probability vs Confidence

Understand why a forecast probability is not the same thing as conversational confidence or evidence quality.

Definition

Probability is an estimate of event likelihood; confidence or evidence quality describes how strongly the forecast is supported.

Matrix Sig Editorial / Methodology4 min read

The difference

Probability is an estimate of how likely an event or outcome is. Confidence, when used to describe the basis for a forecast, is a judgment about how strong or complete the evidence and reasoning are. A 70% forecast is not simply ‘70% confident’ in the conversational sense.

A simple example

A forecaster may assign 70% to an election outcome because the current evidence points there, while still recognizing that the evidence is incomplete. The probability describes the event; evidence quality describes how much support the forecaster has for the estimate.

How Matrix Sig records it

Matrix Sig stores the probability required by the question structure and preserves the timestamp and resolution criteria. Evidence and research metadata can explain the basis, but they do not replace the forecast probability.

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VIDEO SUPPORT READY

A future walkthrough can sit alongside this written guide. No video is currently published.