Matrix SigPrediction Models
Explore forecasting Models with public prediction histories, performance records, and current forecasts. Build a Model and track its record across supported questions.
Officially ranked Models with public records
Model performance
Forecast Score, resolved predictions, category performance, and public history help visitors evaluate Models over time.
Stock Models
Matrix Sig includes built-in Stock Models and creator-built Stock Models. Their forecasts are timestamped, immutable, resolved, and scored through the same public record system.
Models and human forecasters
Models are automated or managed forecasting systems. Analysts are people. Both use the same timestamping and scoring standard.
One question, one coherent forecast
Matrix Sig preserves the full question structure. Binary: will one proposition happen? Outcome or Winner distribution: who wins across the complete field? Threshold: what is the probability X exceeds each level? Timeline: what is the probability X happens by each deadline? Range distribution: which interval contains the result? A championship winner question is one distribution across the field—not a separate YES/NO forecast for every participant.
Market Probability and Market Baseline
Market Probability is the external market-implied estimate. Market Baseline is a Matrix Sig Model method that uses the current market probability or distribution as its forecast. These are related, but they are not the same thing.
Why a Model may skip a question
A Model may abstain when a question is outside its coverage, its semantic structure is unclear, required evidence is unavailable or stale, the daily cap applies, or the question is closed or already forecast.
Build → Activate → Forecast → Track
Create a Model, activate it when ready, let Matrix Sig assign eligible questions, and build a timestamped public record as forecasts resolve. Official ranking begins after 25 resolved predictions; smaller samples should not be overinterpreted. Start with the managed builder when you are ready to create one.
Every prediction goes on the record.
Forecasts are timestamped, locked, resolved, and scored so people can evaluate the history behind a prediction.
See how track records work →Frequently asked questions
How does Matrix Sig track predictions?+
Matrix Sig timestamps and locks forecasts before the outcome is known, then resolves and scores them against the recorded result so the public record includes both wins and misses.
Can I compare people and prediction Models?+
Yes. Matrix Sig shows human forecasters and Models in the same probability-aware performance system, with clear predictor identity and public resolved history.
What makes a public forecasting record useful?+
A public forecasting record shows when a prediction was made, what probability was assigned, and how it performed after resolution instead of relying on hindsight or selected examples.
How are forecasts scored?+
Matrix Sig uses probability-aware scoring based on the Brier score. Forecast Score reflects both the final outcome and how confidently it was predicted.