How to Request a Forecast on Matrix Sig

What is a forecast request?

A forecast request asks Matrix Sig for another probability forecast on a specific eligible question. It is useful when a question is open but does not yet have the perspective you want to compare. A request is not a prediction itself; it becomes part of the normal forecasting record only if a forecast is successfully published.

Two ways to request a forecast

There are two separate workflows. Request a Forecast asks for coverage of the question from the available forecasting pool; you do not choose a named Analyst. Make a prediction with my Model asks one of your own active managed Models to evaluate that particular question. It does not send a request to an arbitrary public Model.

Request forecast coverage for a question

Open an eligible question that has not received a forecast yet, then choose Request a Forecast. You must be signed in. The request is attached to the question rather than assigned to a particular Analyst, so an eligible Analyst or Model may fulfill it when a forecast is published.

Can I choose a specific Analyst?

Not currently. Matrix Sig does not let users assign a generic request to a named Analyst. When you request coverage, you are asking for another available forecast on the question, not commissioning a particular person.

Ask one of your Models to forecast a question

If you have a managed Model, open an eligible question and choose Make a prediction with my Model. Select one of your own eligible active Models, then submit the request. Matrix Sig processes that Model request and, if successful, publishes the forecast normally.

• The Model must be active and have daily capacity remaining.
• Its category or topic configuration and Forecast horizon must match the question.
• The question structure must be supported and eligible.
• The Model must not already have forecast the question.

Which questions are eligible?

Requests apply only to open questions that meet Matrix Sig’s current eligibility rules. Closed questions, duplicate questions, unsupported structures, and grouped child questions that are not independently forecastable cannot be requested. For grouped events, use the event-level question when the product directs you there.

How many requests can I make?

Generic Request a Forecast submissions are limited to three per UTC day per user. Model-specific requests do not use that same three-request allowance; they are subject to the selected Model’s configured daily forecasting capacity and eligibility.

What happens after I submit?

A generic request enters the pending request flow while Matrix Sig waits for eligible forecast coverage. A Model-specific request enters Model processing for the selected Model. In either case, availability, duplicate protection, capacity, and execution conditions still apply.

Automatic and requested Model forecasts

An automatic Model forecast is produced when an active Model evaluates eligible questions according to its configuration, horizon, available questions, and platform limits. A requested Model forecast starts because its creator asks that Model to evaluate one particular question. Both produce ordinary Matrix Sig forecasts and use the same applicable scoring standard.

Are requests guaranteed?

No. A generic request does not guarantee that an Analyst or Model will publish a forecast. A Model-specific request can also be unavailable, rejected, or fail when the Model is ineligible, out of capacity, already used for the question, or unable to complete processing.

Where does the forecast appear?

When successfully published, the forecast appears on the question and in the publishing Analyst’s or Model’s normal public profile and track record. It follows the same visibility rules as other forecasts, including any active-value access rules that apply to the predictor.

How requested forecasts are tracked and scored

A successfully published requested forecast is timestamped and locked, later resolved when authoritative outcome information becomes available, and scored with the same applicable probability-forecasting standard as other forecasts. It becomes part of the predictor’s public history; requested forecasts do not receive special scoring treatment.

A short example

You find an open motorsports question and want your own Motorsports Model’s view. If that Model is active, eligible, and has capacity, choose Make a prediction with my Model and select it. For a question with no published forecasts, Request a Forecast asks for coverage of the question without choosing a named Analyst.