Forecasting 101

Prediction Market Probability vs Forecast

Learn how an external Market Probability differs from a Matrix Sig Analyst or Model forecast and from Market Baseline.

Definition

Market Probability is an external market-implied estimate; a Matrix Sig forecast is a separately published Analyst or Model probability.

Matrix Sig Editorial / Methodology5 min read

Market Probability

Market Probability is the estimate implied by an external prediction market. It is a benchmark from a separate source, not automatically the same as a Matrix Sig forecast and not a guarantee of the eventual result.

Matrix Sig forecasts

An Analyst or managed Model publishes a probability using the question’s criteria, available evidence, and its supported method. Matrix Sig records that forecast separately from the external benchmark.

Market Baseline

Market Baseline is a Matrix Sig forecasting method that uses the current Market Probability or distribution as its forecast. It is transparent and useful for comparison, but it should not be called an independent forecast.

Consensus terminology

Matrix Sig Consensus refers to an aggregate of Matrix Sig forecasts where that feature is implemented. It is distinct from external Market Probability.

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Explore Model methods

Read the detailed Market Baseline explanation.

Explore Model methods →
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Related resources

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Models

Market Baseline Explained

Understand how Market Baseline uses external market probabilities as a transparent Matrix Sig forecasting method.

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Understanding Model Maker Settings

Learn what each supported Model Maker setting changes, what it cannot change, and why a Model may skip a question.

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Understanding Forecast Types

See how Matrix Sig represents binary questions, outcome distributions, thresholds, timelines, and ranges as coherent forecasting tasks.

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VIDEO SUPPORT READY

A future walkthrough can sit alongside this written guide. No video is currently published.