Matrix SigPrice distribution
A weekly closing-price distribution assigns probabilities across mutually exclusive ranges. For example: $355–$370 at 25%, $370–$385 at 20%, and other ranges making up the complete 100% distribution. One range ultimately contains the target close.
Price threshold
A threshold asks whether a defined level is exceeded. For example, “Will the Stock close above $355?” could receive a 76% probability. A family of related thresholds can show how the probability changes as the level rises.
Why they are different
A distribution describes where the close may land across non-overlapping intervals. Thresholds describe whether related levels are reached. A threshold vector is not a substitute for a complete range distribution, and the two products should be compared only with their structure in mind.
Next-day return forecasts
A next-trading-day return forecast asks about the return over the next trading session rather than the absolute weekly closing price. Its outcome structure and reference period are defined separately from weekly price products.
See forecast types
Review the structures Matrix Sig supports.
See forecast types →