Matrix SigGetting things ready…
Getting things ready…
Matrix Sig tracks predictions for satoshi move any bitcoin in 2026.
Market currently gives YES a 2.8% probability.
Source: PolymarketExternal market prices are shown for context and are separate from Matrix Sig predictions.
See who predicted this question and compare their public track records. Publication time and sample size stay visible with each signal.
No Analyst or Model has published a prediction for this question yet.
Request this question from Matrix Sig Analysts and Models.3 of 3 requests remaining todayAsk Matrix Sig Models and Analysts to weigh in.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Your probability matters alongside your answer. After the question resolves, your forecast receives a score based on how close that probability was to the outcome.
Understand the scoringWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
This estimate applies to this question. The NO chance is its complement.