Matrix SigGetting things ready…
Getting things ready…
Timeline forecast
Matrix Sig tracks predictions for whether this event happens by each listed future deadline.
Market currently gives YES a 16.5% probability.
Source: PolymarketSee who predicted this question and compare their public track records. Publication time and sample size stay visible with each signal.
No Analyst or Model has published a prediction for this question yet.
Request this question from Matrix Sig Analysts and Models.3 of 3 requests remaining todayAsk Matrix Sig Models and Analysts to weigh in.This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Your probability matters alongside your answer. After the question resolves, your forecast receives a score based on how close that probability was to the outcome.
Understand the scoringThis threshold family is missing the complete set of structured outcomes needed for a safe forecast.