Matrix SigPrediction markets and prediction models aren't the same thing
Prediction markets generate probabilities from trading activity. Prediction Models generate probabilities from analytical systems, data, or defined forecasting methods. Matrix Sig tracks forecasts from Models and human Analysts rather than operating a prediction market.
Different sources, different records
A prediction market aggregates trading decisions into an external market-implied probability. A prediction Model applies a repeatable method to evidence and produces its own forecast. A human Analyst publishes a judgment or research-based probability. Matrix Sig keeps those sources distinguishable and evaluates published Matrix Sig forecasts through public, timestamped records.
How the three approaches differ
| Prediction market | Prediction Model | Human forecaster | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probability source | Trading activity | Model, data, and defined method | Judgment, research, and experience |
| Money required | Often, to trade | No | No |
| Public track record | Market history | Can be scored | Can be scored |
| Individual identity | Often diffuse | Model profile | Analyst profile |
An external benchmark
Market Probability is the estimate implied by an external prediction market or source market. Polymarket prices are available on supported Matrix Sig questions; Kalshi prices are not currently integrated. Neither is a Matrix Sig forecast or a guarantee of the outcome.
Only compare contracts after checking the outcome, cutoff, settlement rules, resolution source, and observation time. Different contract rules can make two similarly worded markets non-equivalent.
Read the Market Probability explanation →Models, Analysts, and Consensus
Matrix Sig forecasts are published by eligible Analysts and Models, timestamped, locked, resolved, and scored. Matrix Sig Consensus is an aggregate of accessible Matrix Sig forecasts where that feature is available; it remains distinct from Market Probability.
Browse forecasting Models →Compare methods through evidence
These approaches answer related questions but produce different kinds of evidence. Matrix Sig makes the forecast source, publication time, resolution criteria, resolved count, and probability-aware score visible so readers can compare a Model or Analyst record without mistaking it for a market price.
How Matrix Sig predictions work → Understand public track records →