Matrix SigGetting things ready…
Getting things ready…
Timeline forecast
Matrix Sig tracks predictions for whether this event happens by each listed future deadline.
Market currently gives YES a 13.5% probability.
Source: PolymarketSee who predicted this question and compare their public track records. Publication time and sample size stay visible with each signal.
No Analyst or Model has published a prediction for this question yet.
Request this question from Matrix Sig Analysts and Models.3 of 3 requests remaining todayAsk Matrix Sig Models and Analysts to weigh in.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Your probability matters alongside your answer. After the question resolves, your forecast receives a score based on how close that probability was to the outcome.
Understand the scoringThis threshold family is missing the complete set of structured outcomes needed for a safe forecast.