CATEGORY FORECASTS
Politics forecasts
Review independently tracked forecasts about elections, policy, and public affairs. Compare active questions, market benchmarks, and published Analyst and Model signals.
Political questions can involve named outcomes, policy events, deadlines, or distributions across candidates and alternatives.
Politics
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Current market prices unavailableSource snapshot is stale or missing.
Politics
ElectionsWill Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Current market prices unavailableSource snapshot is stale or missing.
Politics
ElectionsWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Current market prices unavailableSource snapshot is stale or missing.
Politics
Putin out as President of Russia by...
Timeline forecast
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
View all 5 outcomes →Politics
ElectionsWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current market prices unavailableSource snapshot is stale or missing.
Politics
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...
Timeline forecastCurrent market prices are unavailable because the source snapshot is stale or missing.
Politics
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Market Probability External market-implied probability · separate from Matrix Sig forecasts.4.5% YESSource: Polymarket
Politics
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...
Timeline forecastCurrent market prices are unavailable because the source snapshot is stale or missing.
Politics
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Market Probability External market-implied probability · separate from Matrix Sig forecasts.17.5% YESSource: Polymarket
Politics
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea
Timeline forecastCurrent market prices are unavailable because the source snapshot is stale or missing.
Politics
Iran leadership change by...
Timeline forecast
June 30, 2027
Politics
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...
Timeline forecastCurrent market prices are unavailable because the source snapshot is stale or missing.
Politics
ElectionsWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Market Probability External market-implied probability · separate from Matrix Sig forecasts.>99% YESSource: Polymarket
Politics
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...
Timeline forecastCurrent market prices are unavailable because the source snapshot is stale or missing.
Politics
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...
Timeline forecast
December 31, 2026
June 30, 2027
Politics
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Market Probability External market-implied probability · separate from Matrix Sig forecasts.2.1% YESSource: Polymarket
Politics
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...
Timeline forecastCurrent market prices are unavailable because the source snapshot is stale or missing.
Politics
ElectionsTrump out as President before 2027?
Market Probability External market-implied probability · separate from Matrix Sig forecasts.3.6% YESSource: Polymarket
Matrix Sig