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Getting things ready…
Matrix Sig tracks predictions for the highest score achieved by a moonshot kimi model on humanity’s last exam in 2026 be 45% or higher.
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No Analyst or Model has published a prediction for this question yet.
Request this question from Matrix Sig Analysts and Models.3 of 3 requests remaining todayAsk Matrix Sig Models and Analysts to weigh in.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Your probability matters alongside your answer. After the question resolves, your forecast receives a score based on how close that probability was to the outcome.
Understand the scoringWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
This estimate applies to this question. The NO chance is its complement.