Matrix SigGetting things ready…
Getting things ready…
Price thresholds
Matrix Sig tracks predictions for the probability of each listed threshold at the Jan 1, 2027 deadline.
See who predicted this question and compare their public track records. Publication time and sample size stay visible with each signal.
No Analyst or Model has published a prediction for this question yet.
Request this question from Matrix Sig Analysts and Models.3 of 3 requests remaining todayAsk Matrix Sig Models and Analysts to weigh in.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Your probability matters alongside your answer. After the question resolves, your forecast receives a score based on how close that probability was to the outcome.
Understand the scoringWill the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?
This estimate applies to this question. The NO chance is its complement.