Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Matrix Sig tracks predictions for the u.s. invade iran before 2027.

Closes in 59 daysCloses Jan 1, 2027 (UTC)Active forecastSource: Polymarket

Market Probability

YES17.5%

NO82.5%

Market currently gives YES a 17.5% probability.

Source: Polymarket

External market prices are shown for context and are separate from Matrix Sig predictions.

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How this question is decided

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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